To better understand what’s next for the future of the Atlanta region, ARC analyzed eight different futures, or scenarios, to assess the impact that different land use patterns can have on the transportation infrastructure we expect to have. What follows is a brief explanation of the eight scenarios that we modeled. The four in bold text are the ones we analyzed in greater depth for What's Next: Strategic Planning and Regional Growth Scenarios.
| Scenario | Land Use Pattern Tested |
| Base Case | This scenario, also known as the "Needs Assessment Forecast," is based on the currently-adopted Envision6 Forecast, but uses Plan 2040 regional control totals. |
| Concentrated Growth | All future household and job growth occurs inside the region's "core," which is approximately bounded by I-285. |
| Urbanized Area | All future household and job growth occurs inside the 2000 Urbanized Area |
| Sprawl | All household growth accurs in greenfield areas, (i.e. no infill or redevelopment). Job growth occurs in the manner outlined in the Base Case. |
| Water Constrained | No new household or job growth in those areas dependent on Lake Lanier for their water supply. All growth occurs outside those areas. |
| Southside Growth | All job growth is allocated to the southside of the region (south of I-20) to mirror the jobs-housing ratio of the northside (north of I-20) |
| Local Policy (UGPM/LCI) | Household and employment growth are allocated to concentrate growth in areas that already have infrastructure - like LCIs and employment and activity centers throughout the region. The result is a reallocation of 50 percent of the growth expected in rural areas to these already developed areas. |
| Transit-Oriented Development | All future household and job growth occurs in areas served by (or will be served by) transit. |
Each scenario we analyzed represents a future with clear advantages and disadvantages across a number of meausures. As the diagrams below show, (the bigger the polygon, the better the scenario) the Concentrated Growth scenario did perform well on most measures, except one of the most critical measures - improving regional congestion. The Sprawl scenario shows that if we only allow development to occur in greenfield areas, the transportation system performs the worst and we would consume the most land.
The Local Policy scenario, with its focus on regional employment and activity centers, best combines land use patterns with aggressive transportation investments and performs well on all measures, including congestion. For a summary of these three scenarios, read the What's Next summary.
In addition to these diagrams, we also created Travel Time Sheds for various regional places for each scenario. So if you want to see how each scenario performs, check this out:
Travel Time Shed Maps (pdf 4MB - large file)
Quadrilateral charts (pdf)