Forecasts

ARC has developed a new series (called Series 15) of population and employment forecasts for the 20-county region through the year 2040. These data support the transportation project prioritization and land use planning that is the basis of The Atlanta Region's Plan, a long-range blueprint for sustainable growth over the next 30 years. ARC forecasts total population, total households and household population, total jobs, and job change by sector, and (for travel model purposes only) households by income by size.

forecast emp pop 3

ARC’s Series 15 forecasts anticipate, for 2040, just over 8 million persons in our 20-county area along with about 4 million jobs. From 2015 to 2040, the 20 county Atlanta Region is forecast to add 2.5 million residents. Average annual growth rate 2015-2040 is a modest 1.5%, which while strong (and higher than during the recession) is a departure from more robust historical trends. The average annual regional population growth rate between the 1950s and the 2000s was 3%. Employment for the 20 county Atlanta Region is projected to increase by 1.04 million jobs between 2015 and 2040. The average annual employment growth rate during this period is forecast at 1.2%.

You can visualize this regional data down to much smaller levels using the Weave tool:

weave link 3

 

As an alternative to Weave, another quick way to get a quick look at the forecast “headlines” is to consult our 20-county data dashboards:

 

Forecast tableau

A series of maps (links at right in the Download Center) show the spatial distribution of population change and job change expected during the forecast period of 2015-2040. Also, in the Download Center at right, 10-county summary and individual county data from the Series 15 forecast are summarized in links to compact infographics under “County Profiles.”

For even more information, for “smaller area” geography including census tracts and superdistricts (groups of tracts, analogous to market areas in many cases), check out the EXCEL files available under the DATA heading in the Download Center. The spreadsheet workbooks also have data for counties and the broader region. Please note that ARC does not produce forecasts explicitly for cities, as city boundaries may change dramatically in the future.

For overviews of the process followed to how we developed the Series 15 forecasts, and for documentation of the actual models (REMI, PECAS, and the ABM) used in the production of the numbers, visit the Forecast Development and Documentation page.

Archival forecast data (Plan 2040, adopted 2010): 

 

 

 

 

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